Liu Shijin: The focus of the rescue should be on low-income people who recommend subsidizing one month ‘s income

Liu Shijin: The focus of the rescue should be on low-income people who recommend subsidizing one month ‘s income
According to the latest statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of newly diagnosed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world is approaching 2 million, and the WHO recently found that the epidemic has not yet reached its peak.The overseas epidemic continues to spread, and the Chinese economy continues to be under pressure due to this.How to treat the impact of this second wave of overseas epidemic on China’s economy?What is the expected growth of China’s economy in 2020?Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the probability of growth impairment will exceed that of the former. China ‘s economy will have to shift from a conventional growth modelThe “war epidemic growth model” of the period.”Most can achieve a growth of about 3%, which is a big victory.”” Liu Shijin also said that in the case of changes in the growth background, the assessment of growth targets should also be adjusted accordingly.It is recommended to adopt a “relatively relative” assessment method, which is to use the ratio or difference between China’s growth rate and the world’s average growth rate.”If the world growth rate is -2 in 2020.5%, 3% in China, and 5 in relative terms.5% is higher than last year.”In the face of complex domestic and foreign economic indicators, how to position the policy?Liu Shijin suggested that short-term policies should focus on “recovery”, “rescue” and “risk-avoidance”, and the focus of the rescue assistance is on small and medium-sized enterprises and low-income people, thus relying on fiscal policy to exert force.The focus of hedging is to prevent the financial system from being shut down and chaotic due to liquidity tensions. China should have the ability to keep monetary policy normal without having to follow negative interest rates.Liu Shijin did not expect that at this stage to achieve steady economic growth, first and foremost is steady consumption, especially residents’ consumption, while infrastructure investment cannot stabilize the overall situation of China’s economy.So how to promote consumption?He suggested direct subsidies for low-income groups.”(Subsidies) cannot take the form, drizzle, and have a large enough amount to reach the monthly income or consumption level of low-income people.”In the medium and long term, how can reform be used to stimulate economic growth momentum?Liu Shijin believes that substantial deepening of reform is the best stimulus policy.The accelerated development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is the largest structural potential of China’s economic growth. It is necessary to promote the construction of metropolitan areas through the reform of factor markets.”The outstanding problem of infrastructure investment is the wrong place and mechanism of investment.In the metropolitan area, there is little chance of error.”” Transition from a conventional growth model to a “war epidemic growth model” for a long period of time “Sauna Night Net: The impact of overseas epidemics, as one of China’s economic troika’s export pressure.How do you view the impact of overseas epidemics on the Chinese economy?Liu Shijin: First, the second wave of impact cannot be underestimated.At the beginning of this year, China’s economy was first hit by the epidemic. The economy almost stopped for more than a month, and it is now gradually recovering.However, the overseas epidemic situation is in a state of rising anxiety, and in general there is no turning point.According to the latest estimate by the WTO, the impact of global economic growth on the tilt of the ground in 2020 will be reduced by -2.5% to -8.8%, export growth rate is -17.1% to -40.9%, the import growth rate is -14.5% to -33.8%.China’s exports fell 11 quarters in the first quarter.4%, imports fell by 0.7%.After the second quarter, it is expected that the impact of overseas epidemics on China ‘s imports and exports will intensify and will become the second wave of impact on the Chinese economy.Relevant research conclusions, China’s imports and exports are expected to appear 15% -20% substitution, of which the decline in service trade.There is a view that because net exports account for a relatively low share of GDP, as long as net exports do not exhibit large negative growth, the impact on domestic growth is limited.This is true under normal growth, but if the short-term internal reduction of exports is too large, resulting in the suspension of a large number of export enterprises and production, it will directly affect domestic consumption, investment and employment.By expanding the budget analysis can be polished, a decline in exports and a merger will affect 0.2 nominal GDP.According to recent information, there has been a steep decline in orders from foreign trade companies.The impact of the 2008 international financial crisis on the Chinese economy also confirmed this.At that time, exports fell by 30 digits from a high point, driving GDP down by 7 subdivisions.When the second wave of shocks alleviates directly determines the trend of the international epidemic, and there are three great uncertainties in the international epidemic.First, the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries have shown inflection points after the reduction, but under the current control mode, it may be difficult to clear them in a short period of time like China, and there will be a fairly long tail;Third, whether the epidemic will exist across years or even for a long time.In this context, the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the growth and impairment will also exceed the former.I agree with the statement that the end of the global epidemic does not mean the country where the epidemic ended, but the worst country because we are on the same interconnected earth.Because of this, we will have to face and adapt to the reality that we have shifted from the conventional growth model to the “war epidemic growth model” for a long period of time.The salient feature of this growth model is the need to pay a “war epidemic discount cost”, which means that some resources must always be allocated to internal anti-rebound, external anti-input, and the economy is difficult to operate at full horsepower to achieve potential advantages.”China’s economic strength can achieve a growth of about 3% is a great victory.” Sauna Night Net: After switching to the war epidemic growth model, how is China’s economic performance expected in 2020?Liu Shijin: After shifting from the conventional growth model to the “war epidemic growth model” for a long period of time, it means that the background of China’s economic growth in 2020 will change a lot.A contraction of -5% is expected in the first quarter and returns to a certain positive growth rate in the second quarter. Without considering the second wave of shocks, assuming that the third and fourth quarters are supported by rebounds and stimulus factors, it may be higher than the previous two.In this respect, it has reached a growth of about 8%. However, if the impact of the second wave of shock is taken into account, if there are 2-3 exchange impairments, the growth of about 3% can be achieved, which is a big victory.In the context of a deep global economic recession, such a growth rate is very rare.It can be said that the expansion of 3% under the “war epidemic growth model” will greatly exceed the gold content of 6% under the conventional growth model.The assessment of growth targets should also be adjusted accordingly.It is recommended to adopt a “relatively relative” assessment method, which is to use the ratio or difference between China ‘s growth rate and the world ‘s average growth rate to assess the growth of the Chinese economy.The basic background of adopting this method is that the Chinese economy has been subdividing and integrating the global economy, and the impact of the epidemic is also global.Compared with previous benchmarks, if this ratio is stable or rising, it indicates that China’s economic performance is good, otherwise it is poor.Taking the difference as an example, the average growth rate of the world economy in 20192.9%, China is 6.1%, the relative intensity is 3.2%; if the world growth rate is -2 in 2020.5%, 3% in China, and 5 in relative terms.5% is higher than last year.One advantage of this assessment method is that it does not have to be too confined to previous growth targets, especially to avoid using excessive stimulation methods to achieve the goals set under the conventional growth model. In the context of the war epidemic growth model, scientifically and practically formulate andImplement growth goals.”China has the ability to keep its monetary policy normal without having to follow a negative interest rate policy.” Sai Yewang: With changes in the context of economic growth, how to position short-term macroeconomic policies?Liu Shijin: The short-term policy should be adapted to the characteristics of this economic shock.This large-scale economic growth was an unexpected super external shock, not a problem within the economy, such as serious shortage of demand and excessive leverage.This is different from the previous financial or economic crisis.There are absolutely two factors in economic recovery, one is the duration of the epidemic, and the other is the degree of impaired production capacity.If the duration of the epidemic is not long and the production capacity is limited, a V-shaped rebound may occur after the epidemic; if the duration of the epidemic is prolonged or the production capacity is seriously damaged, the rebound will not be so easy.In addition to controlling the epidemic situation as quickly as possible, recovering damaged production capacity and improving protection are the focus of short-term policies.The short-term policy should focus on “recovery”, “rescue” and “risk avoidance”.Recovery is to reconnect the interrupted supply and demand. Some people expand the demand. In fact, the top priority is to restore the demand.The assistance helps companies and individuals who are in a difficult situation, and even cannot survive for a few days. The focus is on small and medium-sized enterprises and low-income people.Risk avoidance is to prevent and control the risks that may be caused by existing structural conflicts in the economy, to prevent old conflicts from causing new problems, and the focus is to prevent the financial system from being shut down and chaotic due to liquidity tensions.From this perspective, the focus of fiscal policy is bailout. The state has decided to issue special national bonds, and the funds raised should be mainly used for bailouts.The focus of monetary policy is risk aversion.It should be said that this time the Fed responded fairly quickly, by providing sufficient liquidity to stabilize expectations and prevent chaos or even collapse of the financial system.Of course, the price is also high.China has adopted a proactive and effective policy. The financial data for March has come out, and we can see that the social finance index has risen significantly.When the real economy decelerates suddenly and almost shuts down, only increasing the injection liquidity can guarantee the continuous operation of the economy.However, the difference between the Chinese economy and developed economies is that the two are at different stages of development. China still has considerable structural growth potential. The stimulus to the economy mainly depends on structural potential rather than macro-policy. Therefore, China should also be able to makeMonetary policy remains normal, without having to follow to get negative interest rates.”Infrastructure investment cannot stabilize the overall situation of China’s economy. The focus of steady growth is steady consumption.” Sauna Yewang: Specifically, what should be the focus and direction of short-term policies?Liu Shijin: There are three issues that need attention in short-term policies.First, steady growth is the first and the focus is to stabilize consumption.The economic growth rate we encountered before, the first thing we thought of was to spend money on investment, especially on infrastructure investment, which was related to the growth stage and economic structure at that time.In 2008, in response to the impact of the international financial crisis, a four trillion stimulus plan was implemented. Investment accounted for 62% of the GDP increase in the expenditure method that year.8%, the proportion of consumption is 42.5%.By 2019, the proportion of investment in the GDP increase in the expenditure method has dropped to 17.2%, the proportion of consumption rose to 66.9%, the proportion of residents’ consumption is 49.5%.This set of data shows that at this stage of steady growth, first and foremost is to stabilize consumption, especially household consumption.If this big head is not stable, the whole economy will not be stable.Investment, especially infrastructure investment, has turned into a small head, and the small head cannot hold the overall picture.Second, directly subsidize low-income groups.This is a double room directly derived from steady consumption.Whether to directly issue monetary subsidies or accumulate consumption coupons without too many restrictions can also be discussed.The general practice of summing up is direct monetary subsidies, which are sent directly to the resident account.Our weakness is that the infrastructure for identifying and supplementing low-income people has not been generally established.With the development of digital technology to the current level, it should not be difficult to engage in this “new infrastructure”. The current demand also provides a shortcoming.In the short term, you can use existing channel information, such as poor people in poor areas, low-income people in the urban social security system, and individual tax declaration systems.At least three points should be paid attention to this supplement: it really supplements the low-income people; it should be consumed more; it should not take the form, drizzle, and have an appropriate large amount to reach the income or consumption level of the low-income people as much as possible.A related issue of cognition should also be discussed.We cannot simply think that the direct subsidy to low-income people is to give benefits and raise lazy people.Seen directly, subsidies can stabilize consumption and increase growth, and part of the compensation will be converted into corporate income and government revenue.From the perspective of the economic cycle process, the compensation for the low-income group is reduced, the income gap is reduced, protection is improved, and human capital is improved, because the low-income group is both a consumer and a producer, and is the producer with the largest room for human capital.Third, it is necessary to leave enough ammunition to the foreign trade trapped enterprises under the second wave of impact.The resources of the rescue enterprise should be used in a balanced manner, and the bullets cannot be finished at once.The second wave of shock has just begun, and it is unclear where the front and the tail are.Export enterprises are one of the most dynamic and competitive parts of the Chinese economy. If these enterprises fall, the damage to the Chinese economy is difficult to estimate.It is necessary to place the bulk of aid resources in this area.Direct subsidies for low-income people can also be combined with assistance to foreign trade companies.For employees under certain income levels in foreign trade-stricken enterprises, the government supplements a certain amount of supplements to help enterprises stabilize their workforce, so that they can simultaneously increase consumption, reduce costs, stabilize employment, and make policies work better.”Substantially deepening reform is the best stimulus policy” Sauna Yewang: You have been working hard to tap the potential of the Chinese economy through reform.In the medium and long term, how can reform be used to stimulate economic growth momentum?Liu Shijin: Even if the economy recovers better, a hard growth gap will remain.The aforementioned “war epidemic cost discounts” must also be covered by new demand.How to stimulate new growth momentum is a problem to be solved by the medium- and long-term policies that complement the short-term policies.In the next five to ten years, the rapid development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is China’s largest structural potential for economic growth. In a fashionable saying, it is a “new outlet” for China’s economic growth.It is necessary to promote the construction of the metropolitan area with the reform of the factor market.The so-called metropolitan area, in terms of spatial form, is a one-hour commuter circle, or within 50-70 kilometers around the existing core city (different geographical environments have the flexibility to interfere), and the development of small towns or several small cities is connected to each other.Afterwards, a new urban network system was formed.In general, the development of the metropolitan area focuses on the development of the “circle”. By resolving the structural contradictions of core cities, expanding urbanization space, small decentralization, and large concentration, the transformation and upgrading of megacities in large cities are realized.Specifically, it is conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, especially the manufacturing industry to increase the level of specialization on the basis of cost reduction; it is conducive to the adjustment of the population structure and greatly improves the living environment and quality of life; it is conducive to the balance of work and residence, slowing down congestion, pollution andCommuting pressure; conducive to migrant workers and other immigrants in the city to improve living conditions and access to due basic public services; conducive to driving innovation and green development, and promoting the transformation of production and living, feasible and necessary new development methods.From the perspective of growth momentum, small towns need to build a large number of residential buildings, public infrastructure, and small towns need to be connected by rail transportation. The small towns with industrial clusters must also have new industrial investment, which can almost driveConsumption can also bring a lot of investment.According to preliminary estimates, in the next ten years, the construction year of the metropolitan area will provide at least zero for the national economic growth.5 to 1 individual growth momentum, in addition to responding to the impact of the epidemic, has also provided strong support for the moderate and gradual development of a long period before.Recently, the concept of “new infrastructure” has been hotly speculated. In terms of volume, the main body of infrastructure investment is still the so-called old infrastructure.In fact, regardless of the old infrastructure or the new infrastructure, it is a good infrastructure to invest in the right place.The outstanding problem of infrastructure investment is the wrong place and mechanism of investment.In the metropolitan area, there is little chance of error.Returning to reality, the construction of the metropolitan area faces too many ideas, constraints and constraints in terms of systems, mechanisms and policies.Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued “Opinions on Further Improving the System and Mechanism of Factor-Based Allocation of Factors”. The core is to promote the free flow and market-based allocation of production factors such as land, labor, capital, technology, and data.After the release of the document, the social response was positive and enthusiastic. It can be said that it was the right time to tackle the various institutional mechanisms and policies facing the construction of the metropolitan area.This again shows that substantive deepening of reforms is the best stimulus policy.It is recommended to use the Federal Central Document as an opportunity to launch a package of reform and development plans to promote the construction of the metropolitan area with elementary market reforms, including related cities, focusing on continuous population inflows, developing large cities or urban agglomerations with high potential, and accelerating the reconstruction or revision of the metropolitan areaConstruction plan, and announce it as soon as possible, the construction boosts confidence and stabilizes the expected role; start the construction of the metropolitan area rail transit, communication engineering and other infrastructure construction projects with sufficient preparations at the early stage of the construction scale; prepare the plan, and proceed with the phased construction mainly for the migrant population, especiallyHousing projects for rural population entering the city; promoting agricultural land to the city, transfer of homesteads, selecting some small towns, and carrying out pilot projects for the construction of elderly communities in the core cities to go to the countryside; adjusting household registration policies and other population mobility management policies for migrants in urban areasThe small towns in the neighbouring towns live and work in a favorable environment for employment and entrepreneurship; they have replaced the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and some provincial capital cities with great development potential as comprehensive experimental zones for the reform and development of the metropolitan area, taking the lead in making breakthroughs and obtaining reproducible and scalable experiences.Sauna, Ye Wang Hou Runfang Editor Wang Jinyu proofread Li Ming